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  • Has Putin shot himself in the foot?

    By chopping off Crimea and invading South Eastern Ukraine, Putin removed 5 million of the most pro-Russian Ukrainian citizens from the electorate.

    According to exit polls, Pro-EU/West parties have gobbled up at least 70% of the vote with support for the communists and more pro-Russian parties virtually disappearing.

    The result is, by far, the most pro West, pro-EU government Ukraine has ever had with pro-Russian voices parliament being so few that Petro & friends will be able to pass virtually anything practically unopposed.

    Putin has won a succession of battles in the East and Crimea and made the West appear slow, weak and indecisive but when you step back from the day-to-day headlines and consider the big picture and Putin's primary aims, namely:

    1. Keep Ukraine out of an EU free trade area and the EU itself
    2. Bring Ukraine into his Eurasian Union

    It appears that Putin has scored a succession of own goals and driven Ukrainians away. It's now absolutely unimaginable that Ukraine could ever abandon its Western aspirations and join a union with Russia and its dictatorship friends.

    Hell, if Ukraine conducted a referendum today on joining NATO, it would likely pass - a year ago that was not the case. So what has the last year of minor victories and the thousands of corpses actually achieved for Putin? How have his plans for a grand Eurasian Union advanced?

    Somehow, I think that if Putin had kept himself entirely out of any involvement in the Ukraine conflicts and worked in the background instead with his propaganda machine and network of puppets in Kiev, his key goals might not seem quite so distant and a few thousand people would not have lost their lives needlessly.

  • #2

    I agree that Putin was very reckless. His Ukraine gambit is turning out not to be the catwalk he thought it would be.

    Ukraine's army, although ill-equipped and poorly armed, managed to put up a fierce fight. There were/are major casualties on both sides.

    A rift emerged among separatist forces in the Donbas.

    The fallout at the intl level is turning into Putin's personal hell. The last scraps of credibility Russia had as a member of the UN Security Council and world power are shot.

    Russian markets and the rouble have been shaken, resulting in massive capital outflows, now estimated up to $70 billion in the first quarter alone, compared with $63 billion in the whole of last year. A severe recession is under way.

    http://www.ukraine.com/forums/busine...tml#post125911
    Last edited by Hannia; 27th October 2014, 04:30.

    æ, !

    Hannia - Hania - Mighthelp

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    • #3
      Putin did not invide anything. There is not Russian Army Forces in Doneck And Luhansk.

      Ukrainians just need excuse for embarrassment in military campaign.

      Crimea is Russian and was given to Ukraine by KHruscev.

      It was given to Ukraine not to Banderistan.

      As today Ukraine turned to BAnderistan, so gift called Crimea went back to Russia.

      Absolute justice!

      By the way, majority of Crimea people want to live in Russia and what right Ukraine has to force them to live under oppression of Ukrainian nationalists and neonazies.

      Comment


      • #4
        Putin did not invide anything. There is not Russian Army Forces in Doneck And Luhansk.
        Russia admits its soldiers have been caught in Ukraine.
        Issue of captured soldiers to be discussed at meeting between Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart on Tuesday afternoon.
        Russia admits its soldiers have been caught in Ukraine | World news | theguardian.com

        It was given to Ukraine not to Banderistan.
        Banderistan...no such place, as proven by latest Ukrainian parliamentary elections.
        Absolute justice!

        Russia wanted to play w/the big boys and be an important world leader, so it signed Budapest Referendum. Remember?

        By the way, majority of Crimea people want to live in Russia

        Why don't indigenous people like Tartar exist in your equation?

        what right Ukraine has to force them to live under oppression of Ukrainian nationalists and neonazies.

        Once the Kremlin pulls the financial plug on Crimea, Crimean Russians will know true oppression. They will be begging for life's necessities like water and food.

        As per Moscow Times: Finance Minister: Russia Needs Backup Budget For Worst-Case Scenario | Business | The Moscow Times
        =========================
        =========================
        I would think a forum like this one deserves better quality propagandists.

        æ, !

        Hannia - Hania - Mighthelp

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Hannia View Post

          I agree that Putin was very reckless. His Ukraine gambit is turning out not to be the catwalk he thought it would be.

          Ukraine's army, although ill-equipped and poorly armed, managed to put up a fierce fight. There were/are major casualties on both sides.

          A rift emerged among separatist forces in the Donbas.

          The fallout at the intl level is turning into Putin's personal hell. The last scraps of credibility Russia had as a member of the UN Security Council and world power are shot.

          Russian markets and the rouble have been shaken, resulting in massive capital outflows, now estimated up to $70 billion in the first quarter alone, compared with $63 billion in the whole of last year. A severe recession is under way.

          http://www.ukraine.com/forums/busine...tml#post125911

          About Crimea and East Ukraine: I see that Russian point of view is that Russia is everywhere any Russian was at least once (including vacations). I don't see any real difference between putin Russia and Hitler Germany. Language is different but way of thinking exactly the same.

          Current situation potentially can be very dangerous for whole Ukraine, other putin targets and of course ..Russia. In the case of possible economic collapse, SU case may occur.
          Putin will do everything to save... himself of course! He will support army, special forces, milice (renamed to police lately), spies, straighten law, control medias at the expense of poor citizens (about which live he doesn't care at all) so poverty and economic backwardness seems to be natural consequence of that.
          Of course he will continue saying to his slaves, what they are supposed to think and punish them in any case of disobedience or dissatisfaction.
          As Stalin used to say, "Russia needs a tsar", "we have enough people" and "death of one man is a tragedy, death of a million is only a statistic". Putin will modify some "statistics" for sure.
          Not living in Russia is a great luck!

          Comment


          • #6
            Lol @ Davor!

            Sorry dude, you must have mistaken us for gullible fools.

            Russia invaded Ukraine when it became clear that trying to win by stealth was failing. Nobody believes Russia's claim of innocence except for Russians who get their news from state run media.

            The sooner ordinary Russians wake up to the manipulations, half-truths, lies of their own regime and conduct their own revolution, the better for them and everyone living near them.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by goodluckukraine View Post
              lol @ davor!

              Sorry dude, you must have mistaken us for gullible fools.

              Russia invaded ukraine when it became clear that trying to win by stealth was failing. Nobody believes russia's claim of innocence except for russians who get their news from state run media.

              The sooner ordinary russians wake up to the manipulations, half-truths, lies of their own regime and conduct their own revolution, the better for them and everyone living near them.


              +1000 Amazing that trolls could actually expect anyone to believe any of this tripe.


              Retirement sucks! You never get a day off!!!

              Comment


              • #8
                So the Commie Party and the Party of Regions were both effectively banned from the elections. So on one hand this allowed big pro West wins in the short term but one the other hand in the long-term it further divides Ukraine by disenfranchising over 5 million or more Ukrainians from voting.

                As well, Putin might be an evil bully but he’s no fool. He’s playing a complicated game and unfortunately he still has the upper hand for one reason: Economics. Winter's coming and there's still no gas deal and Russia is still demanding payment up front. And that's just the tip of the iceberg because Ukraine is broke. Well, at least the oligarchs have billions that they sucked out of the country and moved to Switzerland.

                I have read that the EU has only committed up to approximately $800 million, and I'm embarrassed to say that my country, the USA only gave Poroshenko a few hundred million dollars. Everyone can say ‘look the Russian economy is hurting’ and that’s true it is. But they still have major staying power and options, but at this important juncture Ukraine does not.

                I think Putin is trying to crush a unified Ukraine economically. And he has half a chance because the USA and EU encouraged Maidan but have not stepped up at this critical time with enough financial support. It’s a damn shame. How can my country vote to spend hundreds of billions of dollars in Iraq and only give Ukraine a few hundred million. It defies logic.

                Comment


                • #9
                  I expect the EU, US and IMF will continue to bail out Ukraine while Ukraine continues to implement reforms - which should be much easier for them now they have a decent parliament.

                  I would also like to see us stop messing around in the middle east and focus more on Ukraine/Europe. I am hoping that western nations have been filling Ukraine with weapons in secret and that Ukraine has been constantly bolstering its defenses in the East. Russia must not get another inch of Ukraine.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Szary View Post
                    I think Putin is trying to crush a unified Ukraine economically. And he has half a chance because the USA and EU encouraged Maidan but have not stepped up at this critical time with enough financial support. It’s a damn shame. How can my country vote to spend hundreds of billions of dollars in Iraq and only give Ukraine a few hundred million. It defies logic.

                    Szary, to think that there is no such thing as "some version" of the ERP*** being set in motion, is to be politically and economically naive. Whatever the current rules might be, the UA govt is making a major effort in following them. The fact that Ukraine, in time of great chaos and destabilization, has managed to elect a moderate parliament, is a major accomplishment.

                    At this point in time you are overestimating your employer. The Kremlin is losing its economic clout, not gaining economic strength. Recession is at its door. America and Saudi Arabia have opened their oil reserve taps and it's highly likely they will not shut them down until Uncle Vova and his inner circle are on their knees.

                    Oh me - oh my !
                    =====================================
                    ***The Marshall Plan (officially the European Recovery Program, ERP) was the American initiative to aid Europe, in which the United States gave $17 billion (approximately $160 billion in current dollars) in economic support to help rebuild European economies after the end of World War II.

                    Marshall Plan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
                    Last edited by Hannia; 28th October 2014, 16:38.

                    æ, !

                    Hannia - Hania - Mighthelp

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Hannia View Post
                      Szary, to think that there is no such thing as "some version" of the ERP*** being set in motion, is to be politically and economically naive. Whatever the current rules might be, the UA govt is making a major effort in following them. The fact that Ukraine, in time of great chaos and destabilization, has managed to elect a moderate parliament, is a major accomplishment.

                      At this point in time you are overestimating your employer. The Kremlin is losing its economic clout, not gaining economic strength.
                      Hannia, First, I still fail to understand why you keep on insisting that I, a Polish American that's never been to Russia and who thanks to my grandparents has a disdain for things Russian, has the Kremlin as my employer? Because I am not a Yes man to everything happening in Ukraine? Please, grow up and give me a break. Please, give your oh me oh my drama queen stuff a rest. Every Polish American knows that a successful westward leaning EU incorporated Ukraine will be a blessing for Poland.

                      Second, I give great credit to what you say above, that Ukraine even in this time of great chaos has managed to elect a moderate parliament. It is a major accomplishment, a big step in the right direction for stabilization.

                      Third, all I've been really harping on and trying to say is that I was extremely disappointed that my US Congress welcomed President Poroshenko, clapped for his impassioned speech, then sent him home with pennies. And no, I don't believe there is a Marshall sized plan coming from the USA, at least not any time soon. And no real military aid either. And it angers me that they vote to send weapons to so-called Muslim freedom fighters in the Mideast, but won't send them to Kyiv, who supposed to be our ally.

                      Comment


                      • #12

                        Oh me - oh my! Why would Senator Inhofe be meeting w/President Poroshenko?
                        ========================================
                        President meets with senior U.S. senator
                        28.10.2014 | 17:20 UNIAN

                        President Poroshenko on Tuesday held a meeting in Kyiv with ranking member of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee*** James Inhofe, according to a posting on official Web site of the president.

                        The parties discussed the holding of the early parliamentary elections in Ukraine. In particular, "Poroshenko said that a day earlier he had met with the delegations of the OSCE Observer Mission and the European Parliament, who noted that the Ukrainian elections, on the whole, were free and fair, and held in accordance with international standards," the statement reads.

                        "This is very important. This [concern] the reforms and the opportunities you have never had before," Inhofe said.

                        The President thanked the senator for his personal support for Ukraine, especially for the senator’s co-authoring in Congress the “Crimea Annexation Non-recognition Act” and a draft bill "On Preventing Further Russian Aggression Toward Ukraine and Other Sovereign States in Europe and Eurasia."

                        Poroshenko expressed hope that the U.S. Congress would succeed in passing these important legislative acts.

                        The parties also discussed the reform of the defence sector in Ukraine, as well as energy security issues.
                        President meets with senior U.S. senator : UNIAN news

                        ***
                        The Armed Services Committee crafts the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which authorizes spending on weapons systems and pay and benefits for troops and sets policy on a multitude of issues relevant to defense, from research and development of new weapons to personnel policies. Carl Levin - United States Senator for Michigan: In the Senate - Committees

                        æ, !

                        Hannia - Hania - Mighthelp

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Obama may decide to supply arms to Ukraine without senate approval
                          Oct. 28, 2014, 7:22 p.m. | Ukraine — by Interfax-Ukraine

                          The United States President Barack Obama can decide to supply arms to Ukraine for self-defense without the approval of the Senate, said Jim Inhofe, a deputy head of the Senate Committee on Armed Forces.
                          Obama may decide to supply arms to Ukraine without senate approval

                          æ, !

                          Hannia - Hania - Mighthelp

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                          • #14
                            Ukraine Crisis Media Center 10/28/2014
                            United States Senator to Ukraine: “Get Busy on your Reforms”

                            Kyiv, October 28, 2014. Despite other contemporary problems throughout the world, the U.S. Senate remains committed to supporting Ukraine. This was stated by Senator Inhofe during his press briefing at Ukraine Crisis Media Center. U.S. Senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma has just completed a visit to Ukraine to meet with Ukrainian officials and assess the situation in the country. Inhofe is a member of the Republican Party and the ranking member of the Armed Services Committee in the U.S. Senate

                            “We have other problems – with ISIS, with Ebola—but Ukraine is also an important issue for us,” stated Inhofe. During the Senator’s time in Ukraine, Inhofe met with Prime Minister Yatsenyuk, Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin, the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), and President Petro Poroshenko. He was impressed with his talks with Ukrainian officials and expressed his deep dismay with the direction that Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken his country.

                            “I remember what happened during the Reagan revolution and what happened in the Soviet Union,” he said. Inhofe celebrated the democratic changes that occurred in Eastern Europe during the 1980s. “I feel that Putin is trying to de-Reaganize the Soviet Union,” stated Inhofe. The positive changes that happened then are being reversed in the Russian Federation, he noted.

                            Senator Inhofe also praised the conduct of the Ukrainian parliamentary elections on Sunday. “The elections that took place in the elections were incredible.” Inhofe pledged that “the United States of America is going to be considered Ukraine’s best friend.” He praised the efforts of President Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, saying that the United States has confidence in their abilities.

                            Inhofe also promised that support for Ukraine in the U.S. Senate will only increase following the Congressional elections on November 4, in which it is believed that a Republican majority will win the Senate. “I’ve never seen once person received more favorably than Poroshenko was in the House and the Senate,” he stated. “He was proved a rare person who has the intelligence and capability to serve as a partner of ours.”
                            United States Senator to Ukraine: “Get Busy on your Reforms” | Ukraine Crisis Media Center | UACRISIS.ORG
                            =====================


                            æ, !

                            Hannia - Hania - Mighthelp

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Szary View Post
                              As well, Putin might be an evil bully but he’s no fool. He’s playing a complicated game and unfortunately he still has the upper hand for one reason: Economics.
                              Performance over the last three months: Russia Ruble: -25.75% Ukraine Hryvnia: -9.53%

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