REVOLUTION OR TRANSFORMATION?

[StasUA]

G'day everybody,

I deeply apologize for not being an active member and moderator on this forum, but that is not because of lacking the interest but because of a lack of time, amounts of which are unfortunately getting smaller and smaller to spend freely.

I do not know whether this issue was raised up here or not, but here it is:

THE RESULTS OF THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE

Since this thread is directed to those that know about the subject, I will not explain "who is who" and how much votes they got.

-

Yushenko's Block "OUR UKRAINE" has got most of the votes, however didn't achieve a real "majority" status in the Rada YET. It will do so, when certain other blocks and parties would join in with "OUR UKRAINE" to form the majority.

Great economic success of Ukraine in a year of 2001 was mostly due to Yushenko's reforms, that year increased all aspects of Ukrainian prosperity level. As I believe, Yushenko must be the next president, and in a result of elections, there is no doubt that if they are democratic and fair, Yushenko will win(As different polls suggested he will get more than 50% of votes).

Right now, there are new windows opening for Ukraine. The discovery of oil/gas near the ZMIJINIJ island, which is now part of Odessa District, suggests that main Ukrainian financial problem, which is an import of oil from Russia, might and WILL BE solved, - the project needs proper investment and of course, stable political, democratic, reformist leader, as Yushenko.

Now the question, do you believe that this movement would be able to finaly impeach Leonid Kuchma until the end of his Reign? - Will Yushenko become next President of Ukraine?

FACTS:
- Kuchma now faces two front conflicts, on one hand an issue concerning Kuchma's involvement in illegal sales of Ukrainian T84's to countries that support terrorism and on the other extreme unpopularity, corrupcy and political pressure from opposing blocks.

What do you think?

[Bartosz]

Maybe I▓m wrong, but it seems to me that you were looking for the tangible results of the recent elections on the economy. I▓m afraid it▓s too early for that. Economic tools influence economy very slowly, the political ones much slower.

As for the great economic success, I▓m afraid you make a mountain out of the molehill. Ukrainian GDP grew a couple percents over few recent years, what matters comparing to economic slow in Japan, US and EC, but, from the other side, in spite of this growth Ukraine still belongs to the poorest countries in Europe.

I have no idea what is the volume of the o&g reserves next to Crimea, but I know that exploitation of any mineral resource requires time and investments. If Ukraine finds investors willing explore its oil fields, it will take at least 2-3 years before they will yield any profits. But Ukraine doesn▓t belong to the preferable of international financial market. Maybe Ukraine would need another few years of Yusthenko▓s leadership(what doesn▓t seem to be too probable) before it would attract sufficient investments to set off any production near Crimea.

The pattern of Russia teaches us that rich mineral resources will not recompense lack of reasonable administration and structural reforms.

Kuchma seems to have strong support in Eastern and Central Ukraine, what does him not to bother about opposition.


Read that:

http://www.economist.com/countries/U...ory_id=1087295

⌠[┘]The strength of oligarchic groups in parliament will insulate the president, Leonid Kuchma, from impeachment efforts.[┘]■ √ it seems that the next few years will consist in political instability, which will explore president.

[StasUA]

- GDP grew 9% in 2001, which is a rather rapid grow for any country to have.

- And you are right that exploitation of resources from Zmijinij island would take 3 years, because it will, and that is exactly what is planned, 2-3 years(congratulations on being precise). However, investment has already been decided and I'm not sure about "who and how much".

Kuchma doesn't have any support at all, almost everybody in Ukraine supports Yushenko and those who do not, are Russians and they mostly support communists(Simonenko).
Since communists only achieved third place in the elections, they are no longer a major player.

Unfortunately you are correct about stating that Ukraine belongs to one of the poorest countries of Europe, nobody rejects that fact.

But you seem to undermine the progress for the past 2 years in Ukraine.

Almost all sectors of economy grew dramatically for the past 2 years.
Inflation is ceased as by beginning of 2002.
I've just ran across this chart represanting Hrivnia-Roubles changes for the past 360 days, looks quite interesting
http://finance.com.ua/freeinfo/charts/n$rrur36.gif
On the left is how many Hrivnia's per 10 roubles.

[Bartosz]

Such a grows happen only in poor countries and never last longer than 2-3 years. I don▓t know what exactly stands behind it, but it has little chances to repeat this year (the global economy is still in stagnation, US imposed different restrictions on Ukraine, oil prices are high).

BTW: simple calculations point out that Ukraine will need 15 years to get equal with Russia on the score of GDP/per head, but only if two conditions are fulfilled:

a. The GDP of Russia doesn▓t change over this time
b. Ukraine will maintain the growth.

Both seem to be hard to satisfy.

As for support for Kuchma: however is the ethnicity of his followers, he has the support of around half of the deputies in the parliament(article in the Economist). And that does to influence strongly the vicissitudes in every democratic state.

I do not undermine some positive aspect of the recent changes in Ukraine, but its fundaments. Ukraine in order to be strong economically is to privatize and modernize its industry, change the legislation and apply the standards of the market economy. And it hasn▓t been rolled out yet.

As for the stable currency: it makes your production prices higher compared to this in Russia. I hope I don▓t have to mention about the impact of that on competitiveness of Ukrainian economy and trade balance with Russia.



[Edited by Bartosz on 22nd May 2002 at 13:30]

[zhuk]

Although our president probably is one of the most unpopular figures for his own nation.
No doubt- he will stay on his post as long as his term continuous.
Yuschenko is not so popular as it seems, he is considered as reasonable politic person, but he has no power at all.
All the system of governement and mЕdia and material resources and local administration are devoted to Kutchma, because he gives them permission to stay out of Law, while serving to him.
He may commit any kind acts of violence and it still won't change anything in Ukraine.
Only idealist may think that Yuschenko may defeat Kuchma.

[StasUA]

"BTW: simple calculations point out that Ukraine will need 15 years to get equal with Russia on the score of GDP/per head, but only if two conditions are fulfilled:

a. The GDP of Russia doesn▓t change over this time
b. Ukraine will maintain the growth."

That is far from being a reality, for most of Russia's income comes from exporting its natural resources and Ukraine's for exporting manufactured goods and different consumer products. However, the reserves of oil at the Zmijinij island are just a little less than those in Caspian Sea, which would make in a few years, Ukrainian export of oil equal or greater to that of Russia's.

Kuchma's supporters block, which is called the "Edina Ukrajina" or "United Ukraine", has less than half of the seats in the parliament, but close to half. However, "OUR UKRAINE" block, when united with other 4 blocks will achieve informal status of "majority" in the Parliament(Process of unification of the blocks is almost completed).

Just another fact, - Ukainian Government's international debt, during the January-March 2002 has decreased by 315,8 million dollars.

I can find some other interesting facts, however I'm currently obligated to swiftly depart to the gym! (:

[Bartosz]

⌠[┘]That is far from being a reality[┘]■ √ first of all: what exactly? Which of the presented by me conditions are you trying to impair? Regarding maintaining the Ukrainian growth over next 15 years at the toll of 7% or remaining in place the stagnation in Russia over the same period?

⌠[┘]most of Russia's income comes from exporting its natural resources[┘]■ √ not quite true, unless ▒most▓ means ▒arount 50%▓. As far as I know so is the share of the untransformed mineral resources exported by Russia. At http://www.worldbank.com are the statistics regarding the subject, I strongely recommand you visiting them to refresh the information on this subject.

BTW, the biggest (unconditionally) trade partner of Ukraine is Russia, what lets us guess, that Ukrainian goods are competitive at first on this demanding market┘

⌠[┘]However, the reserves of oil at the Zmijinij island are just a little less than those in Caspian Sea, which would make in a few years, Ukrainian export of oil equal or greater to that of Russia's.[...]■ √ I▓m just curions: how much should be invested to even Ukrainian and Russian oil production, and how long would last creating appropriate infrastructure, taking into consideration the following facts:

a. Present Ukrainian production compared to the Russian is around 0
b. Russia is the second world oil producer
c. Flooding the market with this amount of oil would decrease prices and reduce the rentability
d. Analogical process is underway in Kazachstan and Azarbejan, and, as far as I know, they are far from getting equal with Russian production.

⌠[┘]Just another fact, - Ukainian Government's international debt, during the January-March 2002 has decreased by 315,8 million dollars.[┘]■ √ if it was so crucial(if even was), why appropriate S&P ratings havent changed (unlike in the case of Russia)?

⌠[┘]has less than half of the seats in the parliament[┘]■ √ in the democracy even few percents count, so more around 50%. It did only Hitler to justify elimination of the opposition when having less than 50% of the real support in the Reichstag.


[Edited by Bartosz on 25th May 2002 at 16:59]