REVOLUTION OR TRANSFORMATION?

[StasUA]

"⌠[┘]That is far from being a reality[┘]■ √ first of all: what exactly? Which of the presented by me conditions are you trying to impair? Regarding maintaining the Ukrainian growth over next 15 years at the toll of 7% or remaining in place the stagnation in Russia over the same period?"

- It is regarding the fact that due to the continuation of the economic growth plus the development of the exportation of natural oil reserves, will result in a higher rate than the one you foreshadow.

"⌠[┘]Just another fact, - Ukainian Government's international debt, during the January-March 2002 has decreased by 315,8 million dollars.[┘]■ √ if it was so crucial(if even was), why appropriate S&P ratings havent changed (unlike in the case of Russia)? "

In December 2001, S&P upgraded Ukraine's currency risk rating (both foreign and domestic) to "B" with a "Stable" long-term outlook. On the pro side, S&P cited financial stability, partly the result of a rationalized and rescheduled foreign debt structure. On the con side, it cited the usual litany of corruption, weak legislature, and problems with privatization and with structural reform and malignant oligarchs. These flaws being noted, it did upgrade Ukraine's rating - as did Fitch, Moody's and Japan's Rating and Investment Information Agency. The price of Ukraine's (mainly dollar denominated) Eurobonds appreciated dramatically on institutional buying immediately following the announcement.



"⌠[┘]has less than half of the seats in the parliament[┘]■ √ in the democracy even few percents count, so more around 50%. It did only Hitler to justify elimination of the opposition when having less than 50% of the real support in the Reichstag. "

- The fact is that even the block that supports the President, is now arguing within itself whether it should support Yushenko or not. Considering all the facts, it is clear that Parliament will be formulated as a strong "President Opposing" in a short time.

I rapidly looked at the site you suggested to observe, and found that a lot of information there is outdated. So I began a search for an english site for you, with the statistics and I found a great site, which was very interesting for me to read, it is called "Ukrainian Economic Trends" and dated as of November 2001(I couldn't find a 2002 version).

Here is the link, it is in PDF format and will take some time to load:

http://www.ueplac.kiev.ua/eng/public...01/tr0111e.pdf

By the way, I understand that you are from Poland?
I would be interested in learning Poland's economic development for the past 10 years, could you provide me with a statistical site that has such information?

P.S.
When I was very young, I used to hate all Poles and Russians, however that changed in 1996 when I went to Warsaw and found that we're very similiar, I also spoke Ukrainian with a Taxi driver there and he spoke Polish, we could understand most of what we were saying.

[Bartosz]

Let▓s divide this discussion into the sub subjects. First portion will concern the predicted by you rise of the Ukrainian and stagnation of Russian economy:

a. How is it possible to maintain the growth at the rate of 7% over 15 years if generally all economies are involved into the economic cycles, which contains not only booms but also slumps?
b. What would be the annual co production if you maintain, that it would impact the gdp rise, and what oil prices do you imagine would be necessary to yield appropriate gains(my analyse is at the end of the mail)?
c. Russian mineral resources production is above all co production. Don▓t you think that if over this period Ukraine profits from co production, so does Russia, what negates the argument maintaining the stagnation of the Russian economy?

In my opinion there are no tangible premises letting us believe, that in 15 years Ukrainians will prosper as good as Russians.




Ukrainian economy outlook improvement: yes, the changes found the reflection in the ratings, S&P including:

http://www.standardandpoors.com/Rati...tingsList.html

Ukraine is classified somewhere between Papua New Guinea and Mongolia, but still far behind Russia. What exactly stands behind the statement: ▒raised dramatically▓?




Ukrainian energy resources exploitation:

Here▓s the link containing the summary of facts on it: http://biz.yahoo.com/ifc/ua/. By 2010 Ukraine wants produce half of its needs of the oil. Not bad, but far from the top 20 world oil producers. If this production will attain in 2010 50% of its annual use (say, 3 miliards of U$D), the raise of GDP will not be bigger than 5%. Still not enough to be near Russia in the ranks.


That▓s nice to know that occasionally you rely on such a human emotions like hatred, etc. I don▓t derive from your utterance conclusion that Ukrainians use to see and touch the member of another nation to make sure he is the same human being ;-)

[Bartosz]

Good source of information on Polish economy is http://www.stat.gov.pl.