A NEW THREAD: POLITICS TOWARDS UKRAINE

[NORRYM]

Inasmuch as we tend to fault Kuchma Kabal for the apparent shunning of Ukraine by the West - not all blame should be placed there. Ukraine, after all, is but a small blip on the world radar screen. Maybe the Kuchma Kabal makes it {Ukraine} a bigger blip, than it normally would be. The message is, that Ukraine's powers to be should reduce ther swollen heads to size, by realizing that, on the world arena, they are not as important as they might think.

Using the US Secretary of State's, Collin Powell's, timing list of people to see, as a yardstick, the argument above gains credence. Powell is to see Ukraine Foreign minister, Zlenko, in the latter part of March. On days Powell already made a round in the Mideast, and managed to shake hands with Putin.

emkay/02/25/01

[Edited by NORRYM on 25th February 2001 at 19:05]

[Dix]

LOL┘ Well Norrym, I don't know as I'd go so far as to say Ukraine is a "mere small blip" on the radar. While I'll grant it's not "B-52" size, it's certainly no "Piper Cub" either.

Ukraine DOES have many advantages over other former Soviet States. Size and location being an obvious two. In addition, it has good industrial and agricultural resources as well. This makes it an attractive package for Western Nations to get friendly with, in looking to close the book on the Cold War.

Ok, so maybe not "close the book" but certainly begin to write the epilogue.

If Ukraine has any "Achilles heels" as far as the West is concerned, I see two that come to mind quickly (there may be more that aren't immediately coming to mind - and for the moment, I'm ignoring the Kuchma scandal)

First and foremost, being Ukraine's dependence on Russian energy sources. Now, I realize that the infrastructure for that was laid back prior to 1991. But, is does make difficult any thought that Ukraine could not be pressured by Moscow using Natural Gas as the proverbial "carrot", if not outright "blackmail".

Second, and lessor known to most Americans is that your "Rada's" majority party is still the "Communist" party. Now, granted that most Americans would also not realize (coming from essentially a "Two Party" system frame of reference) that even though it's a majority, it's not really a "ruling majority". There are far too many factions that can't seem to get together in agreement to really get much of anything accomplished. But couple that with the energy problem, and I think you see where I'm headed.

Ok, maybe three come to mind. And, I'll grant this last one may be largely symbolic, but you are still "home base" to Russia's Black Sea Fleet (Sevastopol).

Even beyond "Kuchmagate", as it seems to have been dubbed, Ukraine still has a long row to hoe, if it wishes to appear that it's looking westward.

[NORRYM]

I purposely, said what I said, and it got an expected reaction. I am familiar with Brzezinski's analysis, making Ukraine a centerpiece of Eurasian strategic chessboard. So do many Ukrainian politicians - walking around with the swollen heads of overblown self-importance. The characteristic Ukrainian flaw is to do nothing for your own salvation, if someone is going to take care of you in the end. So my low estimate in terms of 'a blip' was part of a shock therapy, and not a sign of my true convictions. Brzezinski's hypothesis is still a valid argument and everything you said falls in place with it, even though you may use an independent perspective and your arguments did not touch on the strategic significance of Ukraine.

Where to go from here - that is the question? How to cure Ukraine Nation and its 'political echelon' from the WELFARE MENTALITY. In their mind, the West cannot afford to abandon them - but they may be miscalculating how far the bungee rope will stretch without breaking. The free ride politically and economically is bound to have its limits.

emkay/02/26/01

[vld77]

NORRYM,

This is going to be rather long and hasty, sorry for that, but just 'dostalo', if you know what I mean.

>How to cure Ukraine Nation and its 'political echelon' >from the WELFARE MENTALITY?


1 Try to be honest

I mean:

Milochevic kills thousands. The US are in to stop it. Clinton would never shake hands with the criminal. APPLAUSES!!! (really)

Putin is killing thousands. The US are... Busch would never ...?
APPLAUSES??? (really???)
(I do not even mention the phoney Tony here, such a waste. Sorry British, this has nothing to do with you individually)

WHAT AN AVERAGE UKRAINIAN THINKS OF IT: WELL, HERE IT IS AGAIN, THE LIFE IS NOT FAIR, MIGHT IS RIGHT. LOOK, EVEN THE US ACT (I.E.THINK) SO. WHAT DO YOU EXPECT FROM ME?

Can you make him think opposite acting this way?


2 Try to understand wider environmental implications of the subject.

I mean:

a population which has been through a 400 years of ruthless nationality-based genocide (in Russian Empire that is) has had no other option to survive but to become VERY patient, tolerant and conformist to virtually anything. It is not quite the same to be loud and proud before your left leg is broken in the torture chamber and afterwards. Because you know with your right one it will go no less painful. Especially when you recall that 10 generations before you have been through the same chamber and this brought nothing better at the end of the day.

WHAT AN AVERAGE UKRAINIAN THINKS OF IT: IS IT REALLY THE RIGHT TIME TO TAKE THE RISK? WILL WE SUCCEED THIS TIME? IS THE SITUATION ANY DIFFERENT FROM WHEN THOSE WHO TOOK THE RISK IN THE PAST HAVE FAILED?

Can you reassure him? Unless I see no unambiguous Western obstruction of the criminal regimes (not only Ukrainian one) and equally clear support to the healthy streams in the Ukrainian society I can't.


3 Try to be consistent. DROP THE BLOODY DOUBLE STANDARDS.

I mean:

When Kuchma cronies are embezzling millions of aid, Ukraine is trumpeted as the champion of corruption. Mr. Volkov is barred from the majority of civilised countries.
APPLAUSES!!! (really)

When Eltsin's cronies have been embezzling TENS OF BILLIONS, Russia is just enjoying all the press about it's fast economic reforms. Mr. Berezovskiy has his hands shaken hands by whoever he wants to be.
APPLAUSES???


WHAT AN AVERAGE UKRAINIAN THINKS OF IT: LOOK, RUSSIA IS CHEATING BIG TIME AND GETTING PRAISED FOR THIS. UNLIKE US. SO, PROBABLY SUCH IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AND SUCCESS IS JUST A QUESTION TO GET TO THE RIGHT SCALE


4 Try to act (in time and adequately), not to react

I mean:

When the Ukrainian Government was headed by communists and thieves it was getting IMF and other assistance big scale, on schedule at no effort.

Once the real reformer (Yuschenko) was appointed the inflow stopped. On the fake charges of embezzlement, nicely packed to an unfortunate in his incompetency FT journalist by Mr. Volkov

WHAT AN AVERAGE UKRAINIAN THINKS OF IT: LOOK, THE WEST IS APPARENTLY NOT REALLY INTERESTED IN OUR REFORMS, NEITHER IN OUR INSPIRATIONS TO RE-UNITE WITH EUROPE. ALL IT WANTS IS TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO OF STRUGGLING ECONOMY, INCREASE OF RUSSIAN INFLUENCE AND MAINTAINING CRONIESM (DID THEY HAVE KICKBACKS?)


5 Try to send in competent people

I mean:

If a person has studied Russia in University, worked in USSR (read Russian) department, then in Embassy to Russia, he/she inevitably sees everything (inn FSU) through the Russian prism.

Which might be quite different from what is reality. Just talk to representatives of the vast Ukrainan American community about what was Ukrainian history and compare it to what those people learned from mostly Russian-sourced history books.

THIS WAY YOU GET CHICKEN-KIEV (KYIV, BTW), DUCKLING-TALBOTT, AND OTHER PEARLS.

WHAT AN AVERAGE UKRAINIAN THINKS OF IT: WELL, STRANGE ENOUGH, BUT THE DEMOCRATIC WEST IS ACTUALLY TALKING THE RUSSIAN WAY. AND ALSO IS PUTTING SOME EXTRA CLAIMS AND BLAIMS, WHICH ARE NOT ALWAYS CLEAR. SO BITTER IT IS, BUT IF IT IS SO, DOES'NT IT MAKE MORE SENSE TO STAY CLOSER WITH RUSSIANS? THIS MASTER IS AT LEAST FAMILIAR ENOUGH, I.E. MIGHT BE THE LESSER OF THE TWO EVILS.

[NORRYM]

The views, expressed in the preceding post, are worthy as a noise in the background. The situation, as described, is lurking undeniably there and it is not being overlooked. It must be pushed into the background, however, in order to slice through to the core. First, a few rejoinders.

Subject matter: {a} Russophile Mentality {RM}, {b} Treatment, by the West of Russia vis-a-vis Ukraine, {c} A grab-bag of other.

{a} The politicians of the new breed {Clinton, Blair, etc.} are not fogged up by the RM. Even the old breed shows signs of being cured of the decease. The Chicken Kiev episode, cannot be cited forever as a proof of the decease.
{b} A mono-planar comparison of the treatment Ukraine gets with that which Russia gets, is, to say the least , misleading. One must include the multi-lateral ramifications to do justice to the comparison. The West must not be viewed as some club of amateurs enamored with Russia.
{c} In the miscellenia category, I would pick first, the state of mind of the Ukrainians and their Politicians. There is plenty to discuss on that subject. Kuchma vis-a-vis Milosevic, would be my second choice.

I will defer expanding on my rejoinders, until the debate picks up tempo.


emkay/02/27/01

[Edited by NORRYM on 28th February 2001 at 00:01]

[Dix]

Ok, now you've made me curious┘.

I never read Brzezinski's analysis Norrym. However, when I get a few minutes I guess I'll have to do a search. (unless you know a link already)

I'd like to see why my view is similar.

And... "noise in the background" is being too kind.. LOL!

[vld77]

NORRYM,

>The views, expressed in the preceding post, are worthy as a noise in the background

If INSIDER'S FEEDBACK is of no value ('a noise in the background'), then keep going as you did. Just do not get surprised if after another 10 years and x billions spent you are still there. It's just the way it goes when you are running a closed loop system.

But be honest to yourself, is this what you really, really want?


DIX:

>And... "noise in the background" is being too kind.. LOL!

Nice attitude. Thank you. Seen it many times with the 'Monday-Bombay-Tuesday-Moscow-Wednesday-Karachi-Same-Report-Different-Cover-Sheets-Does-This-Really-Matter?-Do-Not-Forget-My-Per-Diem-Please-This-Does-Matter advisers. Are you on the right board today?