Ukraine & NATO

[stepanstas]

I don't think that would be the reason for them to leave.

I see russia as a threat and we are still trading with them.

BTW, NATO was created specifically against russia (Solviet Union) so in that sence you are right, but NATO does not attack anyone unless it is being attacked.

[Max_the_Highlander]

As about navy so for Russia the Crimea is strategic location. It has own exits to Black Sea though so they will not lose much, they only will lose military presence in Ukraine.

Well Iran and Afghanistan aren't our area of reach. We didn't use to work with them. The gas and oil we have particulary is Russian but bigger part comes from Middle Asia republics which have rich natural resources.

Ukraine has many projects of direct cooperation with these republics, some of them are fullfield as reproducing of Azerbaijan oil to petrol in Ukraine but majority are still the projects... same as Russian projects of transporting the gas and oil beyond the Ukraine.

However these southern republics look for more profitable ways, for World prices because Russia pays them misery. If there is any alternative to Russian energy keepers, it is in sands of Middle Asia.

[bm-21Lemko]

Central Asia looks nice.

Unless any of you guys see any other options, hypothetically speaking of course.

Most of the southern former SSR republics are stable and full of oil and natural gas.

Currently China uses Africa as a source of natural resources, but many countries in Africa are unstable.

[stepanstas]

Thats the country i was talking about, Azerbaijan.

I think Yuschenko is trying, just not hard enough.

[Max_the_Highlander]

The problem is these countries are very far from western standards of democracy. Actually put simply they are a sort of Latin America with endless chains of dictatorships and the most interesting it's more their ethnic traditions then political.

The cooperation with Rusia is just more safe for them... on the other hand, they look for better conditions on the West and make some steps, rather weak and slow though. I'd say they like the idea of closer cooperation with west but the democracy frightens them.

If they will decide to come out the twilight, Ukraine will become middleman between these resources and Europe, including new pipelines... but this is still dreaming about future.

What we see now are just the trends, not strong moves which could be treated clearly.

[stepanstas]

Max,

I must disagree. How is it safer to trade with russia if you don't know whether russia will turn off the gas tommorow?

Also, i doubt Ukraine will be the middleman much longer. Right now russia is trying to build pipes around Ukraine. Reason: In the past when russia shut of the gas Ukraine could say either they will take the gas that travels through Ukraine to West Europe or they will just shut that gas off. Once all pipelines are going around Ukraine, durring the next shutoff, there is not much Ukraine can say.

[Max_the_Highlander]

Actually I meant the cooperation with Russia is safer for Middle East republics, not for us. In their case, Russia takes their gas and sells it to Europe, pumping in through the Ukraine and Byelorussia.

While they have not effective transport system beyond our territory, we can say much, so much. The transition of gas costs money too and Ukraine rises prices for it every time Tussia rises prices for gas. That's why the things move slow and we still use the gas for 30% of World price. Not bad, right?

So called northern and southern flows through the Baltics and Serbia in reality are powerful only as HALF of Ukrainian transport system so their building will change nothing. Besides, this building exists just on the words, only as project.

I agree it's danger sign. Of course we need to pump the Asian gas and oil to Europe directly, it will behefit both Ukraine and eastern republics because Russia will be thrown out.

Next, this year the American company Veco Energy will begin the gas production in Ukrainian Black Sea as concessioners and this will weaken the "dependence" almost to zero... And oil we will take from Azerbaijan.

So the things are going well, guys, very well.