Go Back   Ukraine.com Discussion Forum > Society > Business

Notices


Ukraine - Economics

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread Rate Thread Display Modes
  #29 (permalink)  
Old 12th October 2014, 17:59
Hannia Hannia is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 26,869
Hannia will become famous soon enough

September macroeconomic report by SigmaBleyzer private equity firm
Oct. 12, 2014, 4:58 p.m. | Business — by Kyiv Post

EXCERPTS:
===============
SUMMARY POINTS

(1) The gradual progress of Ukraine’s military forces in regaining control over rebel-occupied territories was interrupted at the end of August, following an ‘undeclared’ invasion of Russian troops in Ukraine.

(2) Amid growing damages and losses, Ukraine has agreed to participate in trilateral peace talks with Russia and the European Union, which ended with a ceasefire deal reached on Sept. 5.

(3) On Sept. 16, Ukrainian and European parliaments both ratified the EU-Ukraine association agreement. However, due to pressure from Russia, implementation of the free trade agreement was delayed until 2016.

(4) Ongoing hostilities in the east, hryvnia depreciation, fiscal austerity and worsening trade relations with Russia hit the Ukrainian economy. In 2Q 2014, real GDP decreased by 4.6 percent year-on-year bringing the cumulative decline to 3 percent year-on-year.

(5) High-frequency real sector indicators for July-August point to a deepening recession in 3Q 2014. In particular, the decline of industrial output production worsened from 4.7 percent year-on-year in 1H 2014 to12 percent year-on-year in July and 21.4 percent year-on-year in August.

(6) Unlike other sectors, agriculture remains the bright spot of the Ukrainian economy. The sector demonstrated solid 6.3 percent year-on-year growth over the first eight months of 2014, and the country is estimated to collect a high grain harvest this year despite an unfavorable environment.

(7) Due to a deeper economic downturn and the intensified armed insurgency in eastern oblasts, which exerted an additional toll on budget revenues and required higher expenditures on military operations, Ukraine’s fiscal accounts remained under significant strain despite a number of fiscal austerity measures. Worsening public finances demanded additional fiscal consolidation efforts. The total deficit is still forecast to widen notably to about 10 percent of gross domestic product, mainly on account of larger Naftogaz imbalances.

(8) As anticipated, consumer inflation kept accelerating and reached 14.2 percent year-on-year in August 2014 amid the ongoing pass-through of sharp hryvnia depreciation, an increase in excise taxes and utility tariff adjustments. End-of-year inflation is projected to reach about 20 percent year-on-year in 2014.

(9) Hryvnia devaluation, economic recession and political instability further weakened the fragile Ukrainian banking sector. The sector lost almost a fourth of its deposit stock over the first eight months of the year and faces asset quality problems. However, thanks to NBU measures and international financial institution assistance, the situation in the sector remains manageable, although temporary NBU administration was introduced in a number of troubled banks.

(10) Ukraine’s current account balance notably improved from April to August 2014, mainly on account of a steeper decline in imports. Although exports suffered from Russia’s trade restrictions, they benefitted from early EU trade supportive measures, Hryvnia depreciation and a high agricultural harvest.



(11) In turn, the capital account remained under significant strain. Despite a sizable financial aid package, access to foreign capital markets remains limited due to high country risks (geopolitical and economic), adversely affecting Ukraine’s ability to successfully issue sovereign debt as well as to roll over private debt.

(12) Capital account pressures triggered further hryvnia depreciation in late August and September. Thanks to NBU capital controls and foreign exchange administrative restrictions, the NBU stabilized the hryvnia at around Hr 13 per/$1. From January to September, the hryvnia lost almost 63 percent of its value. With the IMF program on track, the exchange rate is forecast to remain at around He 13.5/$1 throughout the rest of 2014 and in 2015.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

Until mid-August 2014, Ukraine had been making good progress in its efforts to stabilize the political and economic situation.

Following early presidential elections in May, the president of Ukraine called snap parliamentary elections on Oct. 26 as greater support in the parliament is necessary for smooth implementation of painful but long-awaited reforms. Ukraine has fulfilled all conditions to secure the second IMF tranche disbursement despite growing damage and pressure on the economy as a result of heavy fighting in the eastern oblasts of Ukraine. With the IMF program on track, Ukraine is expected to fully receive the planned amounts of financial aid this year, which will help to stabilize the macroeconomic situation of the country.

During April-August 2014, Ukrainian forces were gradually regaining control over the rebel-held Donbas region. By mid-August, the Ukrainian military had captured almost 75 percent of the occupied territories despite Russia’s increasing support of rebels and mercenaries with weaponry, tanks and artillery. However, at the end of August, the conflict escalated again following an ‘undeclared’ invasion of Russian troops in Ukraine.

This not only allowed the pro-Russian rebels to make a turnaround in the battle but has opened a new frontier in the south of Donetsk Oblast. In addition, there is mounting evidence that Russia has been accumulating significant forces not only along the border with eastern oblasts of Ukraine but also in the annexed Crimea peninsula with an apparent intention to create a land corridor to Crimea. Amid growing losses and damages for Ukraine and realizing that Russia’s army is almost 10 times the size of Ukraine’s, Ukraine agreed to participate in trilateral peace talks with Russia and EU in Minsk, Belarus, on August 26th. Although these negotiations ended with no apparent results, they continued in early September and resulted in a ceasefire deal signed on Sept. 5.

Despite the ceasefire agreement, the outlook for Ukraine still remains highly uncertain for many reasons. First, the deal did not envisage the withdrawal of Russian troops (only rebels and mercenaries) from Ukrainian territory as Russia continues to deny the presence of its troops.

for complete read : September macroeconomic report by SigmaBleyzer private equity firm
__________________

æ, !

Hannia - Hania - Mighthelp
Reply With Quote
  #30 (permalink)  
Old 15th October 2014, 15:31
Hannia Hannia is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 26,869
Hannia will become famous soon enough
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to issue $50 million for $230 million syndicated loan for Kernel
Oct. 15, 2014, 4:39 p.m. | Business — by Interfax-Ukraine

A group of banks will issue $230 million in a syndicated loan in support of Ukraine's major agricultural holding Kernel, a member of the syndicate, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), has said. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to issue $50 million for $230 million syndicated loan for Kernel
__________________

æ, !

Hannia - Hania - Mighthelp
Reply With Quote
  #31 (permalink)  
Old 15th October 2014, 16:26
Hannia Hannia is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 26,869
Hannia will become famous soon enough
Wizz Air Ukraine permitted to fly from Kyiv to Rome, Barcelona and Warsaw 18:05 15.10.2014 INTERFAX-UKRAINE

The commission for the formation and implementation of state policy in the field of air route operation has decided to permit Ukraine's only low-cost air carrier Wizz Air Ukraine to perform flights from Kyiv to Rome, Barcelona, and Warsaw.

The airline told Interfax-Ukraine that the company would obtain the right to fly to Warsaw four times a week, to Barcelona and Rome - seven times a week.

Wizz Air Ukraine serves flights to 16 destinations in six countries from two Ukrainian cities.

In 2013, the company carried more than one million passengers. Its fleet consists of two medium-haul Airbus-320 aircraft. Wizz Air Ukraine permitted to fly from Kyiv to Rome, Barcelona and Warsaw
__________________

æ, !

Hannia - Hania - Mighthelp
Reply With Quote
  #32 (permalink)  
Old 16th October 2014, 12:46
Hannia Hannia is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 26,869
Hannia will become famous soon enough
MIT professor from Donbas says Ukraine still a Soviet, command economy
Oct. 16, 2014, 1:34 p.m. | Business — by Ivan Verstyuk

Massachusetts Institute of Technology finance professor Andriy Kyrylenko believes the nation’s Soviet-era command economy is preventing its 45 million residents from living a better life.

The blame lies in the country's leadership, said the Mariupol city native. "Leaders need to know how to ask for help, build a team, and rely on people around them. There is a saying: ‘A's hire A's and B's hire C's,’" the economist said in an emailed message on Oct. 14. "The idea being that true leaders are known for selecting better trained, educated, experienced people than themselves and delegating responsibilities to them… Whether a leader's training is in economics, biology or ancient history hardly matters at all."

Born in 1967, Kyrylenko moved to the U.S. in 1990 when the Soviet Union, a superpower that included Ukraine, Russia and 13 other republics, was about to collapse. "I was born and grew up in Ukraine – in eastern Ukraine, to be exact. In the underbelly of the Ukrainian Rust Belt, called the Donbas, where people work in ginormous smoke belching factories, eat salted pork fat for breakfast and speak Russian," he wrote in a blog for the Huffington Post in March.

After obtaining a doctorate in finance from the University of Pennsylvania, Kyrylenko worked for 12 years at the International Monetary Fund. In 2010-2012 he served as a chief economist at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the U.S. Afterward, he joined the teaching staff of Sloan School of Management at MIT, whose master of business administration program was recently ranked as the world's 12th best by The Economist.

"After spending around half of my life in the U.S., I haven't seriously worked with Ukraine, haven't been to Kyiv and haven't been doing anything here," Kyrylenko said. "But when the snipers started shooting people (during the EuroMaidan Revolution), I asked myself: why am I sitting in the States and deliver speeches at some conferences, while here (in Ukraine) people are being killed, while my professional experience could be useful?"

So he volunteered to become a policy advisor to Ukraine's Ministry of Finance. "The first question that they asked me was – please explain us how the IMF program (of $17 billion in loans) works," Kyrylenko said in a lecture at the Kyiv School of Economics on Oct. 6. "I looked at this program and my impression was that it had been developed in three days on one's knee. It had and still has lots of weak points."

The program can't stop the uncontrollable growth of risks. The IMF expects overall public budget deficit to reach $6.8 billion this year, while the stand-alone deficit of Naftogaz, the state-run oil and gas company, will likely be $8.9 billion. Naftogaz critically needs to separate profitable assets from the unprofitable ones, the expert says.

Its bankruptcy may be one of the options. "Naftogaz has been bankrupt for a long time, though still soaking huge resources from the state and the economy. The correct bankruptcy procedure would…recognize the scale of the problem, writing it off (in) the public finance system."

Kyrylenko criticizes the information policy of the central bank. In the U.S., the communication strategy of the Federal Reserve, America's central bank, is a tool for guiding the economy, while in Ukraine it remains unclear how the National Bank collects and analyzes information.

"In the U.S., candidates for positions of this level and importance are being prepared not in years – but in decades, obtaining experience both in an academic and practical field, including foreign institutions. For instance, a potential candidate for chairmanship at the Federal Reserve right now is practicing at Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee," Kyrylenko said in an interview with Dzerkalo Tyzhnya, a weekly newspaper.

Meanwhile, he sees the Economy Ministry as a reincarnation of the USSR's State Plan Agency, "painted in yellow-and-blue colors."

Most of the ministry's control functions that it monetizes through corrupt practices should be cancelled, Kyrylenko says. Regarding macroeconomic forecasting that the Economy Ministry used to do, it could be delegated to the National Bank, which is preparing an inflation targeting policy. Preparations include hiring experts on macroeconomic issues to work on the central bank's staff.

Ukraine's big trouble is that government officials identify economic policy priorities, says Kyrylenko. "I prefer market self-organization – it's not perfect, but I have much more faith in it," he adds. MIT professor from Donbas says Ukraine still a Soviet, command economy
__________________

æ, !

Hannia - Hania - Mighthelp
Reply With Quote
  #33 (permalink)  
Old 16th October 2014, 14:54
Hannia Hannia is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 26,869
Hannia will become famous soon enough

15:16 16.10.2014
Ukraine asks Stockholm Arbitration to be quick with interim gas price fixing – Yatseniuk

Ukraine tries to make it clear as quick as possible whether the compromise on supply of the Russian gas for the forthcoming autumn-winter season will be reached during the Ukraine-Russia gas talks with the participation of the EU, or it will be up to the Stockholm Arbitration Court to decide on this matter, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk has said.

"In order to have an interim decision over the natural gas supply, we appealed to the court to speed up taking of the interim decision, which could provide, on one hand, fixing of the price, on the other hand, supplies of the natural gas," the premier said before the government sitting in Kyiv on Thursday.

He added that one more variant possible is setting gas price from March 31, 2015 in the frames of the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia with the participation of the European Union.

For the first time Yatseniuk reported that a lawsuit was submitted to the court to fix an interim gas price on October 3, saying that a decision is expected to be taken in a month term.
Ukraine asks Stockholm Arbitration to be quick with interim gas price fixing – Yatseniuk
__________________

æ, !

Hannia - Hania - Mighthelp
Reply With Quote
  #34 (permalink)  
Old 16th October 2014, 17:06
Szary Szary is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: west coast USA
Posts: 219
Szary is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hannia View Post
MIT professor from Donbas says Ukraine still a Soviet, command economy
Oct. 16, 2014, 1:34 p.m. | Business — by Ivan Verstyuk

Massachusetts Institute of Technology finance professor Andriy Kyrylenko believes the nation’s Soviet-era command economy is preventing its 45 million residents from living a better life. The blame lies in the country's leadership, said the Mariupol city native.
Hannia, I was about to post this article myself and see that you just did! Anyway, I think this Kyrylenko has hit the nail on the head. In my opinion, as dangerous as Russia is to Ukraine's existence, what Kyrylenko is speaking of is just as crucial if Ukraine is to get on the right track to stabilize and grow. I'm glad they have him as an advisor and can only hope they listen.
Reply With Quote
  #35 (permalink)  
Old 17th October 2014, 15:24
Hannia Hannia is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 26,869
Hannia will become famous soon enough

Small businesses show off their products as consumers look for Ukraine-made stuff
Oct. 17, 2014, 4:48 p.m. | Business — by Ilya Timtchenko

In developed, high-income countries, only 50 percent of the economy is dominated by big business, defined as employing at least 500 people. In Ukraine the figure is more like 85 percent.

A business festival called In Search of Made in Ukraine showed off local small businesses who are trying to sell their products to replace imports that retailers depend on. The Oct. 11-12 event took place on Kyiv's Olympic Stadium.

More than 200 producers presented their goods and more than 15,000 visitors came, according to Yulia Savostina, a blogger and an organizer of the event. One could find here Ukraine-made 1960s style dresses for women, jewelry, men's leather purses, wedding dresses, cell-phone covers, peanut butter, board games and bicycles.

Georgiy Shevchenko, 25, a graduate of Interregional Academy of Personnel Management and a product developer at Headges menswear, says he's been running the project for about a year. "I wanted to create something practical – something that could be felt," he told.

His clothing startup makes denim jeans, plaid yarn brushed twill and wool shirts, sweaters, hoodies and hiker jackets. The average price of a plaid long-sleeve shirt is Hr 550.

Festival's food section received a lot of attention. Confiture, a business that specializes in jam production, was one of the most visited sites. Confiture’s salesman Ramil Jafarov from Donetsk was giving out samples of all-natural handmade jam.

The main idea is to let the potential buyers taste the product and understand if they want it or not, explained Jafarov.

enys Slyvnov from Kirovograd and Evgen Klopotenko from Kyiv are the founders of Confiture. "It all started with our big love for food," said Klopotenko. Two former international economics students decided to create a food business in 2011 with a concept of producing something rather cheap that could be given as a gift.

Each 200-gram jar of jam costs about Hr 49. The exotic kiwi-lime has the highest price of Hr 69. Confiture already has 8 people on staff and branched out in Kharkiv and Odesa.

Must Have, a women's clothing firm, has been active since 2010. "Before, people were like "Oh, it's made in Ukraine?" assuming it's not a good quality," company's spokesperson Alina Yelovenkova said. "Right now it's the opposite - everyone is trying to buy Ukrainian products and support the country."

The average price of a skirt is Hr 500, while a dress is Hr 800 although some can go up to Hr 1,400.

Project founders Anastasiya Yankovenko and Hanna Kovalenko first tried to do business with selling coffee, but ended up making dresses. "You always draw a dream model but can’t find it," said spokeswoman with a smile. "Therefore, they decided to sew what they wanted (to wear)."

However, Must Have's classy and pithy style is not just what two young women would like to wear, since they claim to have first lady Maryna Poroshenko and her two daughters among their clients, as well as pop-jazz singer Jamala, television fashion icons Olga Freymut and Katya Osadcha.

Must Have sees the social media promotion campaigns as a key to boost the client base. It already has 9,500 subscribers for its Vkontakte page and more than 5,000 on Facebook.
Small businesses show off their products as consumers look for Ukraine-made stuff
__________________

æ, !

Hannia - Hania - Mighthelp
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

Forum Jump



All times are GMT +1. The time now is 19:32.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.0.0 RC4 © 2006, Crawlability, Inc.